Roger tries to predict what we'll see in digital photography in the next few years. Let me also say a few words:
1. He says either on-sensor phase detection or contrast detection autofocus will become fast enough for most photographers. On-sensor phase detection is nothing new, as we first saw it in the Fujifilm F300EXR back in 2010. Its most successful implementation coming in Nikon's 1 System mirrorless models, which uses a "hybrid" AF system that incorporates contrast-detection AF with phase-detection technology. While the Nikon 1 V2 is not yet ready for the next Olympic Game, it's certainly more than adequate for soccer moms. However, I won't say that all forthcoming cameras will use the hybrid system, because just a single contrast detection autofocus systems found on many mirrorless cameras (such as Panasonic GM-1 that I'm using) are already adequate for social functions. Hence, I'd say that in the next couple of years, all entry-level cameras will use only the contrast detection autofocus, and most mid level (
2. Roger says modular designs will become widespread, but he doesn't refer to Thom Hogan's type of modularity. He just refers to the design of the internal parts. I would say it's likely to happen, due to every manufacturer's attempt to reduce cost.
3. Roger says electronic viewfinders will become good enough for most photographers. I'd say this will probably happen in 2017. At present the best e-viewfinders are still a mile away from optical ones. They lack the depth and the three-dimensional feel.
4. Electronic shutters will become a viable reality. Roger says it may be a few years away, but I'd say it will happen in 2016. Every manufacturer must find ways to reduce cost to stay alive.
5. Roger says modularity and ‘exchange repairs’ make good service possible for even a startup company. However, Id say it won't happen, because startups don't invest in the camera business, and also because of the horror story of Lyto (to investors).
6. Roger says third-party lens manufacturers will continue to make excellent optics at lower prices. I'd say definitely third-party lens manufacturers will continue to make excellent optics, like Zeiss, Voigtlander, Sigma (the "Art" line), Tamron (the "High Speed Zoom" series), Samyang and so on. But I don't know if they will continue to make them at lower prices. I think they tend to make value-for-money lenses, but somehow they need to focus more on exotic lenses to get a nice profit margin, such as what Zeiss (eg Otus 55mm f/1.4) and Voigtlander (remember their f/0.95 lenses?) always do, and Sigma has recently tried very hard to do (eg 18-35mm f/1.8).
Let's revisit this page in a couple of years to see if the prediction will come true!
http://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2014/02/disruption-and-innovation
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